ERM Builds Post-Mining Land Use Model with isee systems Expertise

Mining is an essential, but often unpopular, business. It delivers the metals and minerals that fuel modern technology (e.g., solar panels, any device that needs a battery) and make up everyday items (e.g., currency, salt, glass, concrete, ceramics). It also creates jobs that build communities. But the digging and blasting it requires and toxins it emits are hard on the environment. And what will happens when the mine closes? Will the area around it be safe? Will runoff degrade the health of local water systems? Where will former employees work?

“Mining is a lifecycle business,” says Paul Hesketh, Global Mine Closure Lead (Europe, Middle East, Africa), ERM, a multinational advisory firm focused on sustainability. “We use a mining and metal-wide strategy to support clients from the permit process through closure. Closure is always complicated and expensive. Every mine is different and varies in size and scale so closure projects cost anywhere from $100 million to $1 billion.”

When closing a mine in the past, it was deemed enough for a mine to simply make a site safe from personal injury – fill in holes, remove dangerous equipment—before leaving the site. Post-closure disasters proved those basic steps were hardly adequate. In 1966, a coal waste landslide killed 144 people in Aberfan, England. In 2019, a tailings (mine waste) dam, built by a Brazilian mine that closed in 2018, failed and caused a mudslide that covered nearby homes, farms, inns, and roads, as well as mine buildings. Two hundred and seventy people died.

Those disasters and many others have led to higher safety standards for mine closure. They have also shined a light on the damage that mining leaves behind and increased emphasis on environmental and economic sustainability through well-managed post-mining land use.

“Mines now include ‘restore the environment’ measures in closure plans,” says Hesketh. “For example, they address the problem of mine runoff that carries acids and toxic particles like iron into streams and rivers. They also include strategies for repairing wildlife habitats.”

Improperly closed mines also negatively impact the communities outside of, but related to, the actual site. “Mining closures can have a big impact on people,” says Hesketh. “A town’s workforce might be dependent on a mine. There might not be another mining or commercial operation to support workers which hurts the local economy. Even people who don’t work in mining—shop keepers, teachers, doctors are impacted when their clients lose their jobs.”

National and local governments are beginning to require post-mining land use plans that restore or add value. “Especially in places like South Africa where large populations live near mining sites, licenses to operate now require post-mining commitment,” says Hesketh.

In 2023, a multinational mining company sent out a request for proposal for a mining ecosystem model. While they were concerned about one particular site, they wanted a model that could be used anywhere in the world. “They knew what they wanted, they could picture it, but they didn’t know how to build it,” says Hesketh.

The model was to work within a broader framework of post land use mine (PMLU) planning, highlighting specific projects that would drive value from the site for 30 years after the mine closes. The framework includes both prework, before running the model, to determine possible projects for the site and post work, after running the model, to determine the viability and implementation of the best basket of projects according to the model. The outcome would be the PMLU plan.

The core structure of the model had to be based on the mine’s five value drivers: Land, Water, Waste, Carbon and Energy, and Social. Each of these would be affected by a large suite of potential projects that would drive a different amount of value, whether that is jobs (social), clean water, fertilizer, etc., depending on the specific project and its scale.

Hesketh and his associates at ERM began looking at system dynamics software that could support the project. “We found several packages and quickly saw that isee systems offered the most commercial, end-user friendly software,” says Hesketh. “We also noticed the isee systems consultancy opportunity and liked the idea of including real system dynamics expertise in proposal development and model building.”

Karim Chichakly, Co-President of isee systems, joined the ERM team, which includes staff in South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Canada. After winning the mining ecosystem model contract, the team began working with the client to develop a model that projects mine closure outputs and measures the value developed through various closure measures. “The model assesses the closure plan value in terms of jobs, agricultural land use, water diversion and re-use, energy, carbon abatement, and a host of other outcomes,” says Hesketh. The model allows the user to enter what is most important to them, in terms of the five value streams, and evaluates the performance of each basket against that criteria.

“We began the project in July 2023. First, we developed a clear understanding of what isee can deliver. Then we learned about the world in which the model lives, the types of mining projects the client oversees. Karim detailed the kinds of information he needed to build the model and the data needed to run simulations. We worked with the client to collect that information and data. As we use the model, we see things that need to be added or refined.”

The team learned an important insight even before the model was finished. “Clients don’t have all the real-world information needed to build or run the model,” says Hesketh. “They have business plans that describe their operation, but only some of the data needed to look at water use, runoff and waste, energy, and other variables. We had to generate made-up, ideal—but realistic—situations and data when actual information wasn’t available.”

As they tested the model, the team and their client realized that water was almost always the main system constraint. “Water is an input to just about every post-mining activity, especially agriculture,” says Hesketh. “Growing food or raising animals requires access to clean water, which means that mine closure plans have to include treating or diverting water to keep toxins out of irrigation systems. Value is added through the addition of low-level water management jobs and food processing businesses.”

The ERM team categorized the large number of projects into three main areas: Circular Economy, Social Development, and Green Energy. The projects were then generalized to 16 archetypes, which are flexible project templates that include, for example, Waste to Land (fertilizer), Agriculture: Crops, Residential, Solar Farm, and Nature-based Solutions (replanting forests). “The archetypes can be used in any number or combination to model millions of situations,” says Hesketh. “For example, if we’re looking at post-mining agriculture, we can model beef, poultry, or pig farming operations and consider the acreage requirements of each type of animal and every type of farm—free range to factory.”

The model has a friendly user interface that lets the user set the specific parameter values for their projects and turn archetypes on and off. Simulating the model assesses the value of mine closure outcomes, but also warns the user of constraints that are restricting access to greater value.

After a longer period of model testing, use, and client feedback, the ERM team will make refinements and add capabilities. “We already know that we need to implement a new archetype that assesses biodiversity, which is a big part of environmental restoration,” says Hesketh.

Modeling mine closure value is ERM’s first foray into system dynamics. “It’s been a very positive experience,” says Hesketh. “The model is being presented at conferences in Norway and Perth, Australia this year. At first, we were a bit skeptical that we could meet the client’s needs, but bringing isee systems and Karim onto the team made the difference. We’ve worked really well together.”

Rural Communities Australia Uses Stella® Professional to “Think things through”

“People always want instant answers to problems,” says Geoff Wells, Director, Rural Communities Australia. “They want a silver bullet: to simplify the problem, fund it, and be done. But there are no silver bullets.”

A former academic and consultant, Wells has encouraged students, local government officials, and business leaders to recognize the complexity of issues and think through solutions. Ten years ago, after retiring from the University of Southern Australia where he was a dean and professor, Wells and his family formed Rural Communities Australia to help small and regional towns do the same.

“Our main thrust is community-based solutions,” says Wells. “Top-down solutions from agencies outside a community don’t work. Workable solutions require community-based initiatives, thinking, and research. Rural Communities Australia is a vehicle to address issues of seven local government areas in southeastern Australia and a way of bringing stakeholders and funding sources together.”

Communities in that region have their own unique characteristics and represent a wide range of socioeconomic statuses. However, they all face similar challenges.

“We started by visiting communities and meeting with their representatives,” explains Wells. “Through those conversations, we identified four common issue areas: local economic development, health and well-being, environmental integrity, and government structures and processes.

“Those issues came up because they are the most complex. It was hard for community groups to think them through. Those issues have multiple dimensions; financial, cultural, etc. What strategies could they adopt to find solutions?

“Larger, central government agencies often want to apply blanket solutions. Because communities are different from one another, blanket solutions don’t work. Each community has to take charge of finding solutions that will work in their location. How can they think – together – about their big problems? That’s where Stella® comes in.

Wells first learned about and used Stella in his academic work and as a consultant. “It’s easier for people to think through a problem when they can visualize its elements, and Stella helps them do that,” says Wells.

He finds Stella intuitive to use. “I haven’t needed technical support from isee systems,” says Wells. “The online tutorials for Stella work well. I’ve also worked through An Introduction to Systems Thinking by isee system’s founder Barry Richmond. The book is useful and available from isee systems. I've also drawn on Donnella Meadows’ Thinking in Systems, which is a simple, classic book.”

Wells and Rural Communities Australia staff engage communities in model mapping by first listing parts of the problem they face. “Then we ask, ‘How do the parts of the problem connect and inter-relate?’,” says Wells. “Those conversations are used to develop a model map using Stella.

“Local knowledge and experience are embedded in the model map,” says Wells. “And the map is the basis of an ongoing process that allows the community team to learn together. They ask and answer questions like, ‘Where are the gaps?’, ‘What did we forget?’, and ‘How does everything work together?’”

Model maps also help communities see that there are no easy answers or quick solutions. “They can’t walk away from the complexity,” says Wells. “Using the map, they can try out ideas, see if they might work, and if not, go back to the drawing board. They see their mistakes and learn from them. Stella can sit in the middle of that process, supporting and documenting all aspects of the work.””

Recently, he and Rural Communities Australia used Stella Professional to help a small town think through wildfire risks and prevention. “We were working with a 1500-person coastal community located next to Little Dip Conservation Park,” says Wells. “The park is on the side of a prevailing wind. That poses significant risk of a wildfire that could have a devastating economic impact.”

Southern Australian has been plagued by climate change-induced wildfires for the past several years. A New York Times article, Climate Change Affected Australia’s Wildfires, Scientists Confirm, March 4, 2020, reported that an estimated 50 million Australian acres were burned in 2019. The article cited reports and quoted scientists that connected those wildfires to record warmth and associated dry conditions.

“Whole communities have been decimated,” says Wells. “Wildfires have pushed some coastal towns into the sea. It’s reasonable to worry that the town we’re working with could suffer the same fate.”

Rural Communities Australia brought police, fire, local government, and community representatives together to think through their wildfire challenge. “There were plans for containing a wildfire but not for preventing one,” says Wells.

“With the team’s input, we built a model map that deals with Little Dip vegetation areas; where are they, what is their ecology, and how dry or flammable are they. We used the map to think through what has happened in those areas over time, what we should expect in case of a wildfire, how we can prevent a wildfire, what the wildfire response should be, and who is responsible for each planned action. We also invited in and took advantage of aboriginal fire prevention methods like managed burning to reduce wildfire risk.

“Building the model map led to important insights about who is responsible for what, what action plans need to flow out of the model, and what structures are needed to facilitate communication between groups that don’t always talk to one another. We see how it can bring stakeholders together; town residents who live near, work, and play in the park, tourists who visit, members of Friends of Little Dip, and state park rangers to share perspectives, raise questions, and view their own part of the problem and solution set.”

While Rural Communities Australia was able to complete the model map, they have yet to add the data needed to run simulations and fully test ideas. “There is interest in the model," says Wells. "Stakeholders do see the possibilities, but not enough to move forward. With data, the model could be a powerful way to drive community thinking, but we need a group that is committed over time.”

Wells would like to share the model map with other coastal communities. “It would be good to get their feedback and see if the model map fits their experience.” Rural Communities also plans to use Stella to investigate social housing systems, climate change impacts, and landscape conservation schemes.

“It’s so important to think through complex problems to find the best solutions,” says Wells. “Stella provides a basis for systematically building understanding and knowledge across complex environments to see how all parts—human, physical, social, financial, and legal—fit together. Especially when problems are complex, Stella helps us think things through.”

Software Update

Our latest software releases prioritized CLDs, adding several features that make them clearer and easier to work with. You can now give names to Loop Labels, set their documentation more efficiently, and highlight them in a clearer and more flexible manner. We added a module tool to CLDs, providing more CLD creators more flexibility in organizing their diagrams. CLD creators can also benefit from the new CLD Loops Panel, which identifies all loops in a diagram and allows you to highlight them and add Loop Labels for them, and the CLD Documentation Viewer, which lists all loop labels, variables and connectors along with other information they contain. To further improve labeling, we made it possible to label connectors to increase the readability of diagrams, especially CLDs. For a complete list of new features, please check out our feature updates.

On the Road

After a very successful ISDC in Bergen, Norway this August, Co-President Karim Chichakly went on the road again. In October, Karim travelled to the 22nd annual Latin American Conference on System Dynamics (CLADS), in Cartegena, Columbia. We hope you had a chance to say hi to Karim and learn about what's new in our software or caught one of his presentations. Karim presented An Ecosystem Model on Post Mining Land Use and Reducing Veteran Suicide Risk in the USA.

2024 Barry Richmond Scholarship Award Winner

Established in 2007 to honor and continue the legacy of isee systems’ founder, this award is presented to a deserving Systems Thinking practitioner whose work demonstrates a desire to expand the field or apply Systems Thinking to current social issues. This year’s winner is Paco Araujo for his work "Advancing System Dynamics Through Virtual Experiences." The award was presented to Paco at the International System Dynamics Conference in Bergen, Norway. If you are interested in submitting your work for the Barry Richmond Award, you can learn more about the requirements here.

Faculty Engagement Initiative

We are excited to announce our new Faculty Engagement Initiative. We aim to provide valuable materials and resources for interested faculty members to learn how to incorporate dynamic modeling and simulations into their courses. We have partnered with experienced professors from various fields to provide useful tips, tricks, and insights. Our first effort in this initiative is our new webinar series "Integrating Dynamic Modeling and Simulation into Your Courses." Each webinar will be presented by a professor in a different field, highlighting how they introduce and incorporate dynamic modeling into their courses. If you missed the first webinar presented by Dr. Rajib Mallick around civil engineering, you can view it here. Look for our faculty engagement webpage soon for more materials and resources, and join us on November 13 at 4pm Eastern for our second webinar presented by Dr. Russell Richards from the Business School at the University of Queensland, Australia.

Partner Corner

Whole Systems Partnership

Aaron Bhavsar has recently joined Whole Systems Partnership (WSP) as Head of Modelling & Insight after working as an analyst for the NHS on and off since 2008. After being introduced to WSP, System Dynamics and Stella Architect in 2021, he immediately realized how we could apply simulation and Systems Thinking to so many problems the NHS faces every day.

Since joining, he has been involved in a number of exciting projects, one of which is a waiting list recovery model built for a client that we believe can also be very useful for others. Using Stella Architect, we’ve created a model that can handle the complexities and dynamics of waiting lists and present them back in an easy to understand and easy to use format for clients. The model simulates progression through the waiting list in weeks until treatment, and allows clients to see their historical performance and run scenarios to see what they need to do to clear their long waits and achieve performance targets. This high-level overview is a crucial but often overlooked first step allowing clients to be informed and prepared before getting into the finer operational details.

Hosting on the isee Exchange™ allows us to easily share with clients and provide rapid updates and amendments, and feedback so far has been incredibly positive.

Nuclear-21

Nuclear-21 is a long-standing user of isee system’s solutions as the basis for the Dynamic Analysis of Nuclear Energy System Strategies (DANESS) simulation model. As one of the most complex models using Stella (Enterprise), DANESS allows the simulation of nuclear energy systems composed of nuclear reactors and the fuel and fuel cycle from cradle-to-grave, i.e. from uranium/thorium mining until the final disposal of radioactive waste. Given the increased international interest for nuclear energy, DANESS is increasingly used by Nuclear-21 and specific uses to simulate nuclear energy systems to address:

• Governmental questions regarding the possible future deployment of large and mall, so-called SMR, nuclear reactors
• Operational questions by utilities and fuel cycle companies seeking to evaluate new investments or technological development programs
• Investors or financial stakeholders demanding for due diligence on nuclear options or to evaluate the competitiveness of various nuclear (investment) options
• Radioactive waste agencies to assess the environmental impact of nuclear energy systems
• Technology-developers needing to perform system optioneering and requiring an integrated view on nuclear energy

Nuclear-21 has developed other Stella models addressing various aspects of nuclear science and technology use, including radioisotope production for nuclear medicine as well as educational models allowing students to get acquainted with radioactive decay, controlling a nuclear reactor, or even performing energy systems analysis covering multiple energy sources.

More information can be obtained via nessat@nuclear-21.net or via www.nuclear-21.net.

Buroos

Buroos is thrilled to collaborate closely with Copernicos, a dedicated sponsor of the Systems Dynamics Society, on groundbreaking innovation and sustainability projects for the Dutch government's Water and Road Agency (Rijkswaterstaat).

Together, we are tackling crucial initiatives that include:

• Ensuring the accessibility of Dutch harbors and keeping vital shipping channels open
• Preserving the integrity of the Dutch coastline
• Developing robust scenarios to address potential sea level rise, safeguarding inland communities, businesses, and natural habitats
• Enhancing the viability of inland rivers as key shipping routes
• Promoting sustainable maintenance practices for our roads and highways
• Strategizing maintenance for over 3,000 bridges within the Dutch road network

Contact us to learn how we’re shaping a resilient and sustainable future for the Netherlands!

Pontifex Consulting

The most common application of the Stella Architect software is building more traditional simulation models that are used in research, strategy development, and scenario planning. In 2024, Pontifex Consulting applied the software to two innovative and useful projects— where the purpose is to use the resulting products to facilitate rich, cross sectoral conversations.

• FLOWER for the Multisolving Institute
• Thriving Together Investment Model for ReThink Health (Rippel Foundation)

The most common application of the Stella Architect software is building more traditional simulation models that are used in research, strategy development, and scenario planning. In 2024, Pontifex Consulting applied the software to two innovative and useful projects— where the purpose is to use the resulting products to facilitate rich, cross sectoral conversations.

FLOWER: A group facilitation tool by the Multisolving Institute

FLOWER was designed for global accessibility, allowing coalitions and teams worldwide to utilize it with minimal training. Its effectiveness has been demonstrated through successful implementation by several teams – most recently a team assembled by The Partnership for Southern Equity.

The tool leverages Stella Architect's often-overlooked features to create an engaging visual representation. Each petal symbolizes a potential project attribute, constructed using SVG graphics that dynamically adjust in size, color, and opacity based on user inputs. These inputs, controlled by sliders linked to model variables, indicate the magnitude of benefits and equity improvements for each attribute. The interface incorporates overlaid bar graphs on images, which become visible as users interact with the tool. Additionally, by activating simulation duration and speed settings, users can observe animated petal growth, illustrating the timeline of benefit accrual from a project. View it here.